A semi-deterministic approach for modelling of urban travel demand

This paper presents a methodology to construct travel related activity schedules for individuals in a synthetic population. The resulting list of activity schedules are designed as an input into a micro-simulator for urban transport dynamics analysis. The methodology involves two main steps. The first step generates a synthetic population based on census data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The second step assigns individuals in the synthetic population activity schedules using Household Travel Survey (HTS) data related to the geographical area of interest (in this case, the Sydney Greater Metropolitan area). Each individual is assigned an ordered set of trips, travel purpose, travel mode, departure time and estimated trip time. The significance of the methodology is twofold in that it generates a synthetic population aligned with area demographics, as well as generating activity schedules that realistically represent how the population uses existing transport infrastructure. The methodology also preserves the inter-dependencies (in terms of the sequence, travel times and purpose of trips) of individual's daily trips, in contrast to many trip generators for transport micro-simulation purposes. A case study of Randwick area in southern Sydney is presented where the proposed methodology is applied. Case study data is validated against real world results and the scalability and applicability to other urban areas are discussed.